Growing n Evolving

Dot 122: The American Tailwind

3/11/2019

2019年3月11号是个普通的日子，但巴菲特老爷子对此感受有所不同。

“
　　3月11日，是我首次投资一家美国公司77周年的日子。那一年是1942年我11岁，我全身心投入，投资了114.75美元，这是我六岁时开始积攒的。我买的是3股城市服务公司（Cities Service）的优先股。我成了一个资本家，感觉很好。

　　现在，让我们回到我购买股票之前的两段分别为77年的时间里。让我们从1788年开始，也就是乔治•华盛顿就任我们第一任总统的前一年。那时，有谁能想象他们的新国家在短短三个77年的时间里会取得什么样的成就呢？

　　在1942年之前的两个77年期间，美国已从400万人口—--约占世界人口的0.5%—--发展成为世界上最强大的国家。然而，在1942年的那个春天，它面临着一场危机：美国及其盟友在我们三个月前才卷入的一场战争中遭受了巨大的损失。坏消息天天传来。

　　尽管有令人震惊的头条新闻，但几乎所有的美国人在那年的3月11日都相信会赢得战争胜利。他们的乐观也不局限于这一胜利。撇开先天的悲观主义者不谈，美国人相信他们的孩子和后代的生活会比他们自己的要好得多。

　　当然，这个国家的公民明白，前方的道路不会一帆风顺。从来都不是。在其历史的早期，我们的国家经受了一场内战的考验，导致4%的美国男人死亡，并导致林肯总统公开思考“一个如此理想和如此专注的国家能否长久存在”。在上世纪30年代，美国经历了“大萧条”，一个严重失业的惩罚期。

　　然而，在1942年，当我购买股票的时候，这个国家正期待战后的增长，这一信念被证明是有充分根据的。事实上，这个国家的成就可以说是令人叹为观止的。

　　让我们用数字来说明：如果我的114.75美元被投资在一个无佣金的标普500指数基金上，所有股息都进行再投资，那么到2019年1月31日，我所持股份的价值（税前）将增至606811美元（这是写这封信之前最新的可用数据）。这相当于每1美元赚了5288美元。与此同时，当时一家免税机构，比如养老基金或大学捐赠基金的100万美元投资将增加到53亿美元左右。

　　让我再加上一项我相信会令你震惊的计算：如果假想这家机构每年只向投资经理及顾问等各类“帮手”支付1%的资产，其最终收益便会减少一半，只能增至26.5亿元。这就是77年时间里，当标普500指数实际实现了11.8%的年回报率，再用减少1个百分点的10.8%增长率重新计算时所发生的事情。

　　那些经常鼓吹政府预算赤字会带来厄运的人（就像我多年来经常做的那样）可能会注意到，在我人生过去的77年里，我们的国债增长了大约400倍。这是40000%！假设你已预见到这种增长，并对赤字失控和货币贬值的前景感到恐慌。为了“保护”自己，你可能会避开股票，转而选择使用你的114.75美元购买3.25盎司的黄金。

　　这种所谓的保护会带来什么呢？你现在的资产价值仅约为4200美元，不到美国企业中一个简单的无管理投资所实现收益的1%。这种神奇的金属无法与美国人的勇气相比。

　　我们国家几乎难以置信的繁荣是以两党合作的方式实现的。自1942年以来，我们有7位共和党总统和7位民主党总统。在他们任期内，这个国家在不同时期经历了病毒式的通货膨胀、达21%的最优惠利率、几场有争议且代价高昂的战争、总统辞职、房屋价值的全面崩溃、导致社会瘫痪的金融恐慌以及一系列其他问题。所有这些都产生了可怕的头条新闻，而现在一切都已成为历史。

　　圣保罗大教堂的建筑师克里斯多佛·雷恩（Christopher Wren）就葬在伦敦的那座教堂里。在他的墓旁贴着这样的描述（从拉丁文翻译过来）：“如果你想寻找我的纪念碑，看看你的周围。”那些对美国经济剧本持怀疑态度的人，应该思考一下他传递的信息。

　　1788年—--回到我们的起点—--除了一小群雄心勃勃的人，以及一个旨在将他们的梦想变成现实的、尚处萌芽状态的治理框架之外，真的没有什么特别的。今天，美联储估计我们的家庭财富为108万亿美元，这个数字规模高到几乎让人难以理解。

　　还记得在这封信的先前部分，我描述留存收益是伯克希尔繁荣的关键吗？美国也是如此。在美国的会计制度中，类似项目被称为“储蓄”。“储蓄”我们所有的。如果我们的祖先把他们生产的东西全部消费掉，就不会有投资，不会有生产率提升，也不会有生活水平的飞跃。

　　查理和我高兴地承认，伯克希尔的成功在很大程度上只是我认为应该被称为“美国顺风”的产物。对于美国企业或个人来说，吹嘘自己“单枪匹马就完成了这一切”已不能用傲慢来形容。在诺曼底整齐排列的简单白色十字架应该让那些做出如此声明的人感到羞愧。

　　世界上还有许多其他国家有着光明的前途。关于这一点，我们应该感到高兴：如果所有国家繁荣，美国将更加繁荣，也将更加安全。在伯克希尔哈撒韦，我们希望在海外大举投资。

　　然而，在未来的77年里，我们的主要收益几乎肯定将来自“美国顺风”。我们很幸运—--非常幸运—--有这种力量在我们身后。
”

“
   On March 11th, it will be 77 years since I first invested in an American business. The year was 1942, I was 11, and I went all in, investing $114.75 I had begun accumulating at age six. What I bought was three shares of Cities Service preferred stock. I had become a capitalist, and it felt good.

   Let’s now travel back through the two 77-year periods that preceded my purchase. That leaves us starting in 1788, a year prior to George Washington’s installation as our first president. Could anyone then have imagined what their new country would accomplish in only three 77-year lifetimes?

   During the two 77-year periods prior to 1942, the United States had grown from four million people – about 1⁄2 of 1% of the world’s population – into the most powerful country on earth. In that spring of 1942, though, it faced a crisis: The U.S. and its allies were suffering heavy losses in a war that we had entered only three months earlier. Bad news arrived daily.

   Despite the alarming headlines, almost all Americans believed on that March 11th that the war would be won. Nor was their optimism limited to that victory. Leaving aside congenital pessimists, Americans believed that their children and generations beyond would live far better lives than they themselves had led.

   The nation’s citizens understood, of course, that the road ahead would not be a smooth ride. It never had been. Early in its history our country was tested by a Civil War that killed 4% of all American males and led President Lincoln to openly ponder whether “a nation so conceived and so dedicated could long endure.” In the 1930s, America suffered through the Great Depression, a punishing period of massive unemployment.

   Nevertheless, in 1942, when I made my purchase, the nation expected post-war growth, a belief that proved to be well-founded. In fact, the nation’s achievements can best be described as breathtaking.

   Let’s put numbers to that claim: If my $114.75 had been invested in a no-fee S&P 500 index fund, and all dividends had been reinvested, my stake would have grown to be worth (pre-taxes) $606,811 on January 31, 2019 (the latest data available before the printing of this letter). That is a gain of 5,288 for 1. Meanwhile, a $1 million investment by a tax-free institution of that time – say, a pension fund or college endowment – would have grown to about $5.3 billion.

   Let me add one additional calculation that I believe will shock you: If that hypothetical institution had paid only 1% of assets annually to various “helpers,” such as investment managers and consultants, its gain would have been cut in half, to $2.65 billion. That’s what happens over 77 years when the 11.8% annual return actually achieved by the S&P 500 is recalculated at a 10.8% rate.

   Those who regularly preach doom because of government budget deficits (as I regularly did myself for many years) might note that our country’s national debt has increased roughly 400-fold during the last of my 77-year periods. That’s 40,000%! Suppose you had foreseen this increase and panicked at the prospect of runaway deficits and a worthless currency. To “protect” yourself, you might have eschewed stocks and opted instead to buy 31⁄4 ounces of gold with your $114.75.

   And what would that supposed protection have delivered? You would now have an asset worth about $4,200, less than 1% of what would have been realized from a simple unmanaged investment in American business. The magical metal was no match for the American mettle.

   Our country’s almost unbelievable prosperity has been gained in a bipartisan manner. Since 1942, we have had seven Republican presidents and seven Democrats. In the years they served, the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems. All engendered scary headlines; all are now history.

   Christopher Wren, architect of St. Paul’s Cathedral, lies buried within that London church. Near his tomb are posted these words of description (translated from Latin): “If you would seek my monument, look around you.” Those skeptical of America’s economic playbook should heed his message.

   In 1788 – to go back to our starting point – there really wasn’t much here except for a small band of ambitious people and an embryonic governing framework aimed at turning their dreams into reality. Today, the Federal Reserve estimates our household wealth at $108 trillion, an amount almost impossible to comprehend.

   Remember, earlier in this letter, how I described retained earnings as having been the key to Berkshire’s prosperity? So it has been with America. In the nation’s accounting, the comparable item is labeled “savings.” And save we have. If our forefathers had instead consumed all they produced, there would have been no investment, no productivity gains and no leap in living standards.
”

Source: Warren Buffett’s Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
翻译：老喻